Data through 2026-09-13 (13 September 2026)
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Drought cuts draft and daily transits at the Panama Canal

Drought cuts draft and daily transits at the Panama Canal. The disruption ran from 2023-03-01 (1 March 2023) to 2024-09-01 (1 September 2024), 551 days, affecting Panama Canal. Panama Canal averaged 32.1 transits per day during the event window against an expected 32.7 (-1.9%). Panama Canal averaged 885506.0 metric tons per day during the event window against an expected 916018.7 (-3.3%).

Key facts

Started
2023-03-01 (1 March 2023)
Ended
2024-09-01 (1 September 2024)
Status
ended
Severity
4 Severe
Scope
chokepoint
Chokepoints
Panama Canal
Ports
None
Lanes
None
Countries
Panama
Confidence
high: Every draft figure, transit limit and date comes from dated Panama Canal Authority advisories to shipping and the authority's own statements.
First reported
2023-02-01 (1 February 2023)
  • Severity basis: A restriction at a chokepoint that ran for more than a year, with the number of daily booking slots cut from about 32 to 22 and the Neopanamax draft cut from 15.24 m to 13.41 m; no measured effect is available yet, so this rests on the non measured chokepoint criteria.

What happened

From 2023-03-01 (1 March 2023) the Panama Canal Authority cut the maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks below its normal 15.24 m (50 feet), the first of a series of reductions caused by low water in Gatun Lake. The draft fell in steps to 13.41 m (44 feet) during June 2023, and from 2023-07-30 (30 July 2023) the authority also limited daily transit capacity to an average of 32 vessels. After the driest October in its records, the authority cut booking slots to 25, then 24, then 22 a day in December 2023, and scheduled further cuts to 20 and 18 that it later cancelled. Rain from late 2023 allowed 24 slots a day from 2024-01-16. The draft returned to 15.24 m on 2024-08-15 and 36 daily booking slots resumed for transit dates from 2024-09-01.

Measured effect

Transits, all vessel types, Panama Canal

Baseline (expected)
32.7 transits per day
Observed
32.1 transits per day
Change
-0.6 (-1.9%)
Standardised score
-0.1
Event window
2023-03-01 to 2023-06-28 (120 days)
Baseline window
2022-12-28 to 2023-02-21 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-16 (16 September 2026), data revision 1:08ac67811351

Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms.

This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.

Transit trade volume, Panama Canal

Baseline (expected)
916,018.7 metric tons per day
Observed
885,506.0 metric tons per day
Change
-30,512.7 (-3.3%)
Standardised score
-0.2
Event window
2023-03-01 to 2023-06-28 (120 days)
Baseline window
2022-12-28 to 2023-02-21 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-16 (16 September 2026), data revision 2:8c421c5cf422

Source: IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org), International Monetary Fund, using UN Global Platform AIS data. Statistics derived by World Freight Monitor. Terms.

This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.

Timeline

  1. The canal authority announces that from 2023-03-01 the maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks will be 15.09 m (49.5 feet), below the normal 15.24 m (50 feet), and says further cuts will come in steps of about 15 cm. [s1]
  2. The authority announces drafts of 13.56 m (44.5 feet) from 2023-05-24 and 13.41 m (44.0 feet) from 2023-05-30 in the Neopanamax locks. [s2]
  3. Rain allows the authority to postpone the 13.41 m (44.0 feet) draft to 2023-06-13, keeping 13.56 m (44.5 feet) until 2023-06-12, with 13.26 m (43.5 feet) then scheduled for 2023-06-25. [s3]
  4. The authority sets daily transit capacity at an average of 32 vessels from 2023-07-30, split 10 in the Neopanamax locks and 22 in the Panamax locks, and says it expects to hold the draft at 13.41 m (44 feet) for the following months. [s4] [s5]
  5. After the lowest October rainfall in its records since 1950, the authority cuts booking slots to 25 for 2023-11-03 to 2023-11-06, 24 to 2023-11-30, 22 in December 2023, 20 in January 2024 and 18 from February 2024. [s6]
  6. Better rainfall in late 2023 lets the authority run 24 transits a day instead of the planned reductions, and it says that level will hold until conditions change. [s7]
  7. The authority restores the maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks to 15.24 m (50.0 feet) with immediate effect and announces 36 daily booking slots for transit dates from 2024-09-01. [s8]

Cause

The Panama Canal Authority attributed the restrictions to an extended dry season, high evaporation and rainfall well below average in the canal watershed, which lowered Gatun Lake, the fresh water source for the locks. It cited the lowest recorded October rainfall since 1950 and forecast El Nino conditions. Attributed by: Panama Canal Authority. [s5] [s6]

Resolution

2024-09-01 (1 September 2024): Water levels recovered enough for the authority to return the Neopanamax draft to 15.24 m (50 feet) on 2024-08-15 and to offer 36 daily booking slots for transit dates from 2024-09-01, which it described as a return to normal operating conditions. [s8]

Corrections

No corrections to this record as of 2026-09-16 (16 September 2026).

Sources

  1. [s1] Panama Canal Authority, Advisory to Shipping No. A-02-2023: Draft Adjustment to 15.09 m (49.5 feet) TFW for the Neopanamax Locks, published 2023-02-01 (1 February 2023), accessed 2026-09-15. Archived copy. (official)
  2. [s2] Panama Canal Authority, Advisory To Shipping No. A-20-2023: Draft Adjustment in the Neopanamax Locks, published 2023-05-03 (3 May 2023), accessed 2026-09-15. Archived copy. (official)
  3. [s3] Panama Canal Authority, Advisory To Shipping No. A-22-2023: Update to the Maximum Authorized Draft in the Neopanamax Locks, published 2023-05-29 (29 May 2023), accessed 2026-09-15. Archived copy. (official)
  4. [s4] Panama Canal Authority, Advisory To Shipping No. A-35-2023: Additional Measures to Mitigate the Extended Dry Season and Reduction in Precipitation in the Canal Watershed, published 2023-07-25 (25 July 2023), accessed 2026-09-15. Archived copy. (official)
  5. [s5] Panama Canal Authority, Panama Canal maintains competitive draft for the following months, published 2023-07-25 (25 July 2023), accessed 2026-09-15. Archived copy. (official)
  6. [s6] Panama Canal Authority, Advisory To Shipping No. A-48-2023: Reduction in Transits Due to the Ongoing Deficit in Precipitation in the Canal Watershed, published 2023-10-30 (30 October 2023), accessed 2026-09-15. Archived copy. (official)
  7. [s7] Panama Canal Authority, Navigating Change: A Timeline of Recent & Future Progress at the Panama Canal, published 2024-02-14 (14 February 2024), accessed 2026-09-15. Archived copy. (official)
  8. [s8] Panama Canal Authority, Advisory To Shipping No. A-28-2024: Increase in the Maximum Allowable Draft in the Neopanamax Locks and Modifications to the Transit Reservation (Booking) System, published 2024-08-15 (15 August 2024), accessed 2026-09-15. Archived copy. (official)