Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea divert traffic around Africa
Started 2023-11-19 (19 November 2023), and ongoing. Scroll to follow the record one dated step at a time. Read the full event record.
Transits, all vessel types, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 2023-09-20 (20 September 2023) to 2024-10-23 (23 October 2024): values ranged from 17 transits per day on 2024-07-01 to 95 transits per day on 2023-10-27. The shaded band marks the event window, 2023-11-19 to 2024-10-23. Small marks on the line show the dates of the timeline steps.
Transits, all vessel types, Bab el-Mandeb Strait (transits per day), daily values shown in the story chart.
Date
transits per day
2023-09-20
75
2023-09-21
65
2023-09-22
80
2023-09-23
83
2023-09-24
79
2023-09-25
63
2023-09-26
72
2023-09-27
67
2023-09-28
80
2023-09-29
76
2023-09-30
81
2023-10-01
83
2023-10-02
72
2023-10-03
77
2023-10-04
74
2023-10-05
80
2023-10-06
90
2023-10-07
78
2023-10-08
71
2023-10-09
71
2023-10-10
73
2023-10-11
86
2023-10-12
80
2023-10-13
78
2023-10-14
88
2023-10-15
77
2023-10-16
86
2023-10-17
82
2023-10-18
77
2023-10-19
84
2023-10-20
87
2023-10-21
87
2023-10-22
75
2023-10-23
62
2023-10-24
71
2023-10-25
86
2023-10-26
62
2023-10-27
95
2023-10-28
83
2023-10-29
62
2023-10-30
84
2023-10-31
77
2023-11-01
61
2023-11-02
94
2023-11-03
87
2023-11-04
85
2023-11-05
69
2023-11-06
65
2023-11-07
67
2023-11-08
77
2023-11-09
84
2023-11-10
70
2023-11-11
86
2023-11-12
71
2023-11-13
84
2023-11-14
70
2023-11-15
76
2023-11-16
75
2023-11-17
87
2023-11-18
84
2023-11-19
59
2023-11-20
72
2023-11-21
87
2023-11-22
84
2023-11-23
75
2023-11-24
86
2023-11-25
74
2023-11-26
88
2023-11-27
65
2023-11-28
77
2023-11-29
89
2023-11-30
72
2023-12-01
64
2023-12-02
67
2023-12-03
90
2023-12-04
85
2023-12-05
72
2023-12-06
66
2023-12-07
75
2023-12-08
82
2023-12-09
77
2023-12-10
65
2023-12-11
62
2023-12-12
83
2023-12-13
81
2023-12-14
91
2023-12-15
76
2023-12-16
65
2023-12-17
57
2023-12-18
52
2023-12-19
56
2023-12-20
63
2023-12-21
53
2023-12-22
50
2023-12-23
50
2023-12-24
69
2023-12-25
60
2023-12-26
57
2023-12-27
45
2023-12-28
45
2023-12-29
70
2023-12-30
44
2023-12-31
49
2024-01-01
36
2024-01-02
52
2024-01-03
41
2024-01-04
54
2024-01-05
45
2024-01-06
45
2024-01-07
43
2024-01-08
51
2024-01-09
53
2024-01-10
43
2024-01-11
55
2024-01-12
35
2024-01-13
43
2024-01-14
27
2024-01-15
29
2024-01-16
38
2024-01-17
46
2024-01-18
32
2024-01-19
36
2024-01-20
39
2024-01-21
40
2024-01-22
45
2024-01-23
35
2024-01-24
31
2024-01-25
34
2024-01-26
29
2024-01-27
32
2024-01-28
31
2024-01-29
37
2024-01-30
28
2024-01-31
37
2024-02-01
32
2024-02-02
39
2024-02-03
28
2024-02-04
27
2024-02-05
50
2024-02-06
37
2024-02-07
28
2024-02-08
29
2024-02-09
30
2024-02-10
32
2024-02-11
38
2024-02-12
28
2024-02-13
41
2024-02-14
32
2024-02-15
33
2024-02-16
38
2024-02-17
33
2024-02-18
43
2024-02-19
36
2024-02-20
33
2024-02-21
32
2024-02-22
37
2024-02-23
45
2024-02-24
26
2024-02-25
44
2024-02-26
38
2024-02-27
41
2024-02-28
28
2024-02-29
35
2024-03-01
21
2024-03-02
30
2024-03-03
53
2024-03-04
37
2024-03-05
28
2024-03-06
35
2024-03-07
30
2024-03-08
30
2024-03-09
29
2024-03-10
33
2024-03-11
26
2024-03-12
36
2024-03-13
33
2024-03-14
35
2024-03-15
38
2024-03-16
24
2024-03-17
39
2024-03-18
22
2024-03-19
34
2024-03-20
29
2024-03-21
26
2024-03-22
40
2024-03-23
32
2024-03-24
33
2024-03-25
29
2024-03-26
46
2024-03-27
36
2024-03-28
33
2024-03-29
32
2024-03-30
25
2024-03-31
37
2024-04-01
34
2024-04-02
29
2024-04-03
23
2024-04-04
31
2024-04-05
30
2024-04-06
33
2024-04-07
28
2024-04-08
28
2024-04-09
38
2024-04-10
34
2024-04-11
40
2024-04-12
31
2024-04-13
32
2024-04-14
31
2024-04-15
28
2024-04-16
41
2024-04-17
32
2024-04-18
40
2024-04-19
27
2024-04-20
27
2024-04-21
34
2024-04-22
29
2024-04-23
19
2024-04-24
32
2024-04-25
40
2024-04-26
47
2024-04-27
40
2024-04-28
30
2024-04-29
26
2024-04-30
38
2024-05-01
35
2024-05-02
38
2024-05-03
28
2024-05-04
33
2024-05-05
29
2024-05-06
32
2024-05-07
27
2024-05-08
35
2024-05-09
36
2024-05-10
30
2024-05-11
30
2024-05-12
35
2024-05-13
26
2024-05-14
27
2024-05-15
29
2024-05-16
38
2024-05-17
35
2024-05-18
37
2024-05-19
31
2024-05-20
35
2024-05-21
41
2024-05-22
31
2024-05-23
33
2024-05-24
33
2024-05-25
25
2024-05-26
28
2024-05-27
25
2024-05-28
35
2024-05-29
39
2024-05-30
31
2024-05-31
26
2024-06-01
29
2024-06-02
28
2024-06-03
28
2024-06-04
27
2024-06-05
33
2024-06-06
44
2024-06-07
35
2024-06-08
41
2024-06-09
25
2024-06-10
32
2024-06-11
28
2024-06-12
32
2024-06-13
38
2024-06-14
44
2024-06-15
30
2024-06-16
28
2024-06-17
31
2024-06-18
37
2024-06-19
37
2024-06-20
26
2024-06-21
29
2024-06-22
33
2024-06-23
30
2024-06-24
29
2024-06-25
26
2024-06-26
27
2024-06-27
28
2024-06-28
28
2024-06-29
31
2024-06-30
27
2024-07-01
17
2024-07-02
33
2024-07-03
27
2024-07-04
30
2024-07-05
33
2024-07-06
35
2024-07-07
29
2024-07-08
33
2024-07-09
28
2024-07-10
32
2024-07-11
28
2024-07-12
28
2024-07-13
35
2024-07-14
39
2024-07-15
35
2024-07-16
28
2024-07-17
22
2024-07-18
29
2024-07-19
30
2024-07-20
33
2024-07-21
27
2024-07-22
28
2024-07-23
29
2024-07-24
19
2024-07-25
23
2024-07-26
30
2024-07-27
32
2024-07-28
23
2024-07-29
21
2024-07-30
35
2024-07-31
25
2024-08-01
36
2024-08-02
40
2024-08-03
27
2024-08-04
28
2024-08-05
36
2024-08-06
23
2024-08-07
23
2024-08-08
32
2024-08-09
30
2024-08-10
39
2024-08-11
30
2024-08-12
39
2024-08-13
33
2024-08-14
29
2024-08-15
27
2024-08-16
28
2024-08-17
27
2024-08-18
34
2024-08-19
31
2024-08-20
36
2024-08-21
29
2024-08-22
28
2024-08-23
26
2024-08-24
23
2024-08-25
36
2024-08-26
31
2024-08-27
42
2024-08-28
30
2024-08-29
30
2024-08-30
36
2024-08-31
31
2024-09-01
26
2024-09-02
33
2024-09-03
22
2024-09-04
26
2024-09-05
44
2024-09-06
31
2024-09-07
34
2024-09-08
31
2024-09-09
25
2024-09-10
30
2024-09-11
38
2024-09-12
35
2024-09-13
30
2024-09-14
26
2024-09-15
25
2024-09-16
23
2024-09-17
35
2024-09-18
32
2024-09-19
38
2024-09-20
30
2024-09-21
28
2024-09-22
33
2024-09-23
30
2024-09-24
30
2024-09-25
30
2024-09-26
38
2024-09-27
32
2024-09-28
26
2024-09-29
28
2024-09-30
28
2024-10-01
32
2024-10-02
25
2024-10-03
33
2024-10-04
26
2024-10-05
39
2024-10-06
33
2024-10-07
37
2024-10-08
42
2024-10-09
27
2024-10-10
23
2024-10-11
23
2024-10-12
45
2024-10-13
35
2024-10-14
25
2024-10-15
25
2024-10-16
28
2024-10-17
30
2024-10-18
36
2024-10-19
29
2024-10-20
38
2024-10-21
33
2024-10-22
28
2024-10-23
32
What happened
On 2023-11-19 (19 November 2023) the vehicle carrier Galaxy Leader was seized in the Red Sea near Hodeidah, the first in a run of attacks on merchant ships that the United Kingdom government and other states attribute to the Houthi movement. Attacks with missiles, drones and boarding parties followed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden. From 2023-12-15 (15 December 2023) Maersk paused its ships bound for the strait and then routed services around the Cape of Good Hope, and other carriers did the same, moving a large share of Asia to Europe traffic off the Suez route. Attacks paused between late 2025 and early 2026 and some services returned, then threats and rerouting resumed. As of 2026-09-15 (15 September 2026) no dated official announcement records an end.
The vehicle carrier Galaxy Leader is boarded from a helicopter and taken to the Yemeni coast near Hodeidah with its crew aboard. [s3]
The United Kingdom government condemns what it calls the unlawful seizure of the ship by the Houthis and demands the release of vessel and crew. [s1]
Maersk instructs all of its vessels bound for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to pause, citing a near miss involving one of its ships the day before and a further attack on a container ship. [s2]
Maersk says the paused ships will instead sail around Africa by way of the Cape of Good Hope. [s2]
After an attack on one of its ships, Maersk pauses all transits through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden until further notice and diverts them around the Cape. [s2]
After a pause in attacks from about November 2025, officials of the group are reported as saying they will resume attacks on merchant ships, and Maersk again moves selected services to the Cape route. [s4]
Reporting from the region describes Houthi control of the Yemeni Red Sea coast and says operators are still routing around the Cape rather than through the strait. [s5]
Measured effect
Transits, all vessel types, Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Baseline (expected)
77.5 transits per day
Observed
47.8 transits per day
Change
-29.7 (-38.3%)
Standardised score
-3.4
Event window
2023-11-19 to 2024-03-17 (120 days, provisional)
Baseline window
2023-09-17 to 2023-11-11 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-19 (19 September 2026), data revision 1:0c379bcba900
Transits, all vessel types, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 2023-09-10 (10 September 2023) to 2026-10-25 (25 October 2026): values ranged from 13 transits per day on 2025-12-09 to 97 transits per day on 2023-09-14, with a mean of 37.1 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-10-25, was 36 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2023-11-19 to 2026-10-25.
Transits, all vessel types, Bab el-Mandeb Strait (transits per day). Weekly means, week starting Monday.
Date
transits per day
2023-09-04
69.0
2023-09-11
76.4
2023-09-18
76.9
2023-09-25
74.6
2023-10-02
77.4
2023-10-09
79.0
2023-10-16
82.6
2023-10-23
74.4
2023-10-30
79.6
2023-11-06
74.3
2023-11-13
76.4
2023-11-20
80.9
2023-11-27
74.9
2023-12-04
74.6
2023-12-11
73.6
2023-12-18
56.1
2023-12-25
52.9
2024-01-01
45.1
2024-01-08
43.9
2024-01-15
37.1
2024-01-22
33.9
2024-01-29
32.6
2024-02-05
34.9
2024-02-12
35.4
2024-02-19
36.1
2024-02-26
35.1
2024-03-04
31.7
2024-03-11
33.0
2024-03-18
30.9
2024-03-25
34.0
2024-04-01
29.7
2024-04-08
33.4
2024-04-15
32.7
2024-04-22
33.9
2024-04-29
32.4
2024-05-06
32.1
2024-05-13
31.9
2024-05-20
32.3
2024-05-27
30.4
2024-06-03
33.3
2024-06-10
33.1
2024-06-17
31.9
2024-06-24
28.0
2024-07-01
29.1
2024-07-08
31.9
2024-07-15
29.1
2024-07-22
26.3
2024-07-29
30.3
2024-08-05
30.4
2024-08-12
31.0
2024-08-19
29.9
2024-08-26
32.3
2024-09-02
31.6
2024-09-09
29.9
2024-09-16
31.3
2024-09-23
30.6
2024-09-30
30.9
2024-10-07
33.1
2024-10-14
30.1
2024-10-21
29.9
2024-10-28
34.0
2024-11-04
34.6
2024-11-11
33.7
2024-11-18
31.3
2024-11-25
32.7
2024-12-02
29.4
2024-12-09
38.0
2024-12-16
27.9
2024-12-23
31.7
2024-12-30
32.6
2025-01-06
33.1
2025-01-13
32.3
2025-01-20
32.1
2025-01-27
33.1
2025-02-03
31.0
2025-02-10
31.6
2025-02-17
32.4
2025-02-24
31.9
2025-03-03
32.3
2025-03-10
33.4
2025-03-17
34.1
2025-03-24
31.1
2025-03-31
34.4
2025-04-07
33.9
2025-04-14
30.0
2025-04-21
34.1
2025-04-28
31.9
2025-05-05
32.1
2025-05-12
34.0
2025-05-19
34.6
2025-05-26
33.9
2025-06-02
35.3
2025-06-09
35.6
2025-06-16
26.1
2025-06-23
28.9
2025-06-30
32.0
2025-07-07
35.0
2025-07-14
27.6
2025-07-21
32.6
2025-07-28
31.6
2025-08-04
35.4
2025-08-11
35.3
2025-08-18
30.9
2025-08-25
37.7
2025-09-01
34.1
2025-09-08
35.6
2025-09-15
34.3
2025-09-22
33.3
2025-09-29
33.7
2025-10-06
34.0
2025-10-13
37.6
2025-10-20
37.4
2025-10-27
35.0
2025-11-03
40.1
2025-11-10
33.9
2025-11-17
40.7
2025-11-24
37.4
2025-12-01
36.9
2025-12-08
25.3
2025-12-15
32.4
2025-12-22
34.6
2025-12-29
33.3
2026-01-05
33.9
2026-01-12
33.1
2026-01-19
34.1
2026-01-26
35.0
2026-02-02
34.0
2026-02-09
35.3
2026-02-16
40.4
2026-02-23
36.6
2026-03-02
35.3
2026-03-09
30.3
2026-03-16
40.0
2026-03-23
35.7
2026-03-30
38.1
2026-04-06
36.1
2026-04-13
35.7
2026-04-20
39.6
2026-04-27
34.7
2026-05-04
34.0
2026-05-11
35.3
2026-05-18
41.1
2026-05-25
34.3
2026-06-01
37.6
2026-06-08
36.3
2026-06-15
37.1
2026-06-22
35.4
2026-06-29
34.4
2026-07-06
32.7
2026-07-13
40.6
2026-07-20
28.3
2026-07-27
30.7
2026-08-03
25.4
2026-08-10
29.4
2026-08-17
29.4
2026-08-24
26.3
2026-08-31
25.4
2026-09-07
27.3
2026-09-14
24.7
2026-09-21
27.1
2026-09-28
29.6
2026-10-05
28.3
2026-10-12
26.4
2026-10-19
28.9
This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.
Transits, all vessel types, Suez Canal
Baseline (expected)
75.8 transits per day
Observed
54.1 transits per day
Change
-21.7 (-28.6%)
Standardised score
-2.5
Event window
2023-11-19 to 2024-03-17 (120 days, provisional)
Baseline window
2023-09-17 to 2023-11-11 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-19 (19 September 2026), data revision 1:270101932d6b
Transits, all vessel types, Suez Canal, 2023-09-10 (10 September 2023) to 2026-10-25 (25 October 2026): values ranged from 10 transits per day on 2024-12-12 to 95 transits per day on 2023-11-17, with a mean of 43.1 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-10-25, was 46 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2023-11-19 to 2026-10-25.
Transits, all vessel types, Suez Canal (transits per day). Weekly means, week starting Monday.
Date
transits per day
2023-09-04
78.0
2023-09-11
75.3
2023-09-18
71.6
2023-09-25
77.1
2023-10-02
74.9
2023-10-09
79.0
2023-10-16
74.4
2023-10-23
77.6
2023-10-30
76.0
2023-11-06
75.1
2023-11-13
79.3
2023-11-20
75.9
2023-11-27
75.0
2023-12-04
73.7
2023-12-11
78.3
2023-12-18
70.9
2023-12-25
60.3
2024-01-01
54.0
2024-01-08
49.6
2024-01-15
50.7
2024-01-22
42.7
2024-01-29
39.0
2024-02-05
42.6
2024-02-12
39.9
2024-02-19
44.6
2024-02-26
41.0
2024-03-04
40.9
2024-03-11
38.4
2024-03-18
38.7
2024-03-25
38.4
2024-04-01
41.9
2024-04-08
39.0
2024-04-15
44.0
2024-04-22
39.4
2024-04-29
36.4
2024-05-06
42.7
2024-05-13
41.3
2024-05-20
44.0
2024-05-27
39.7
2024-06-03
39.7
2024-06-10
39.9
2024-06-17
37.3
2024-06-24
37.1
2024-07-01
37.9
2024-07-08
37.1
2024-07-15
37.6
2024-07-22
39.3
2024-07-29
40.4
2024-08-05
38.4
2024-08-12
42.0
2024-08-19
41.7
2024-08-26
39.6
2024-09-02
35.7
2024-09-09
34.3
2024-09-16
41.0
2024-09-23
39.3
2024-09-30
36.7
2024-10-07
37.7
2024-10-14
36.9
2024-10-21
38.0
2024-10-28
38.1
2024-11-04
36.7
2024-11-11
35.6
2024-11-18
37.9
2024-11-25
33.1
2024-12-02
35.6
2024-12-09
34.1
2024-12-16
40.4
2024-12-23
34.7
2024-12-30
33.3
2025-01-06
38.1
2025-01-13
36.7
2025-01-20
36.7
2025-01-27
36.6
2025-02-03
31.0
2025-02-10
37.9
2025-02-17
33.6
2025-02-24
35.1
2025-03-03
37.6
2025-03-10
38.3
2025-03-17
36.6
2025-03-24
38.1
2025-03-31
36.7
2025-04-07
39.3
2025-04-14
35.6
2025-04-21
36.4
2025-04-28
36.4
2025-05-05
34.4
2025-05-12
39.1
2025-05-19
38.3
2025-05-26
36.6
2025-06-02
34.3
2025-06-09
40.1
2025-06-16
36.9
2025-06-23
35.3
2025-06-30
37.4
2025-07-07
38.3
2025-07-14
36.9
2025-07-21
40.1
2025-07-28
38.1
2025-08-04
38.0
2025-08-11
37.3
2025-08-18
41.9
2025-08-25
36.7
2025-09-01
42.6
2025-09-08
45.0
2025-09-15
39.0
2025-09-22
42.7
2025-09-29
41.1
2025-10-06
39.0
2025-10-13
43.7
2025-10-20
42.7
2025-10-27
39.0
2025-11-03
44.1
2025-11-10
45.0
2025-11-17
40.0
2025-11-24
43.3
2025-12-01
40.6
2025-12-08
41.6
2025-12-15
41.3
2025-12-22
38.4
2025-12-29
35.1
2026-01-05
38.0
2026-01-12
39.9
2026-01-19
38.4
2026-01-26
42.7
2026-02-02
40.4
2026-02-09
42.7
2026-02-16
40.3
2026-02-23
41.6
2026-03-02
42.7
2026-03-09
40.1
2026-03-16
39.7
2026-03-23
42.4
2026-03-30
44.9
2026-04-06
40.9
2026-04-13
38.4
2026-04-20
44.1
2026-04-27
37.3
2026-05-04
39.7
2026-05-11
39.1
2026-05-18
41.0
2026-05-25
39.7
2026-06-01
41.3
2026-06-08
39.9
2026-06-15
37.9
2026-06-22
42.6
2026-06-29
42.1
2026-07-06
41.3
2026-07-13
41.6
2026-07-20
40.9
2026-07-27
41.6
2026-08-03
41.0
2026-08-10
40.9
2026-08-17
42.0
2026-08-24
43.0
2026-08-31
41.6
2026-09-07
37.9
2026-09-14
41.9
2026-09-21
40.0
2026-09-28
43.1
2026-10-05
41.7
2026-10-12
44.3
2026-10-19
41.3
This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.
Transits, all vessel types, Cape of Good Hope
Baseline (expected)
50.8 transits per day
Observed
70.3 transits per day
Change
+19.5 (+38.3%)
Standardised score
+2.6
Event window
2023-11-19 to 2024-03-17 (120 days, provisional)
Baseline window
2023-09-17 to 2023-11-11 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-19 (19 September 2026), data revision 1:761a80e411bb
Transits, all vessel types, Cape of Good Hope, 2023-09-10 (10 September 2023) to 2026-10-25 (25 October 2026): values ranged from 3 transits per day on 2023-09-16 to 205 transits per day on 2024-07-12, with a mean of 85.2 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-10-25, was 100 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2023-11-19 to 2026-10-25.
Transits, all vessel types, Cape of Good Hope (transits per day). Weekly means, week starting Monday.
Date
transits per day
2023-09-04
32.0
2023-09-11
42.0
2023-09-18
75.4
2023-09-25
55.3
2023-10-02
50.7
2023-10-09
50.9
2023-10-16
52.9
2023-10-23
47.1
2023-10-30
48.6
2023-11-06
46.4
2023-11-13
51.4
2023-11-20
51.4
2023-11-27
45.4
2023-12-04
45.4
2023-12-11
53.3
2023-12-18
49.6
2023-12-25
59.7
2024-01-01
72.4
2024-01-08
72.6
2024-01-15
70.1
2024-01-22
73.0
2024-01-29
80.1
2024-02-05
78.9
2024-02-12
91.3
2024-02-19
87.4
2024-02-26
93.3
2024-03-04
91.6
2024-03-11
82.7
2024-03-18
79.3
2024-03-25
82.9
2024-04-01
77.7
2024-04-08
84.0
2024-04-15
103.1
2024-04-22
89.0
2024-04-29
88.6
2024-05-06
89.9
2024-05-13
93.7
2024-05-20
91.0
2024-05-27
85.4
2024-06-03
101.3
2024-06-10
97.4
2024-06-17
97.1
2024-06-24
92.3
2024-07-01
82.0
2024-07-08
102.3
2024-07-15
95.9
2024-07-22
79.9
2024-07-29
108.9
2024-08-05
79.7
2024-08-12
101.6
2024-08-19
102.9
2024-08-26
82.6
2024-09-02
89.7
2024-09-09
88.9
2024-09-16
87.9
2024-09-23
84.7
2024-09-30
95.4
2024-10-07
84.4
2024-10-14
83.0
2024-10-21
85.4
2024-10-28
90.7
2024-11-04
79.4
2024-11-11
88.6
2024-11-18
88.4
2024-11-25
74.0
2024-12-02
84.1
2024-12-09
76.0
2024-12-16
83.1
2024-12-23
81.9
2024-12-30
81.0
2025-01-06
81.0
2025-01-13
80.7
2025-01-20
92.6
2025-01-27
81.4
2025-02-03
84.0
2025-02-10
92.0
2025-02-17
91.0
2025-02-24
87.7
2025-03-03
86.9
2025-03-10
76.0
2025-03-17
77.1
2025-03-24
81.6
2025-03-31
79.9
2025-04-07
84.1
2025-04-14
83.4
2025-04-21
88.3
2025-04-28
78.7
2025-05-05
90.4
2025-05-12
109.3
2025-05-19
79.0
2025-05-26
85.9
2025-06-02
100.3
2025-06-09
91.3
2025-06-16
88.9
2025-06-23
81.9
2025-06-30
104.6
2025-07-07
99.0
2025-07-14
99.3
2025-07-21
94.0
2025-07-28
95.1
2025-08-04
86.9
2025-08-11
107.4
2025-08-18
90.3
2025-08-25
105.7
2025-09-01
92.0
2025-09-08
96.1
2025-09-15
96.1
2025-09-22
90.9
2025-09-29
101.1
2025-10-06
100.7
2025-10-13
87.1
2025-10-20
94.3
2025-10-27
87.6
2025-11-03
85.0
2025-11-10
81.4
2025-11-17
90.3
2025-11-24
92.1
2025-12-01
84.9
2025-12-08
86.7
2025-12-15
78.9
2025-12-22
84.7
2025-12-29
86.7
2026-01-05
86.7
2026-01-12
89.6
2026-01-19
86.0
2026-01-26
90.3
2026-02-02
78.6
2026-02-09
86.0
2026-02-16
95.9
2026-02-23
88.3
2026-03-02
92.7
2026-03-09
92.4
2026-03-16
92.0
2026-03-23
90.1
2026-03-30
90.7
2026-04-06
93.1
2026-04-13
95.4
2026-04-20
98.3
2026-04-27
90.9
2026-05-04
88.6
2026-05-11
103.0
2026-05-18
97.7
2026-05-25
94.9
2026-06-01
91.6
2026-06-08
91.1
2026-06-15
95.6
2026-06-22
92.1
2026-06-29
96.1
2026-07-06
90.4
2026-07-13
93.0
2026-07-20
90.3
2026-07-27
88.6
2026-08-03
87.3
2026-08-10
91.9
2026-08-17
91.6
2026-08-24
91.9
2026-08-31
78.6
2026-09-07
90.6
2026-09-14
88.6
2026-09-21
88.1
2026-09-28
87.7
2026-10-05
84.0
2026-10-12
85.7
2026-10-19
87.1
This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.
Transits, container ships, Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Baseline (expected)
19.6 transits per day
Observed
7.1 transits per day
Change
-12.5 (-63.7%)
Standardised score
-2.9
Event window
2023-11-19 to 2024-03-17 (120 days, provisional)
Baseline window
2023-09-17 to 2023-11-11 (56 valid days)
Method
wfm-effect-1.0
Computed
2026-09-19 (19 September 2026), data revision 1:2dd7cbe9ead3
Transits, container ships, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 2023-09-10 (10 September 2023) to 2026-10-25 (25 October 2026): values ranged from 0 transits per day on 2024-01-26 to 33 transits per day on 2023-10-06, with a mean of 7.0 transits per day. The latest value, for 2026-10-25, was 9 transits per day. The shaded band marks the event window, 2023-11-19 to 2026-10-25.
Transits, container ships, Bab el-Mandeb Strait (transits per day). Weekly means, week starting Monday.
Date
transits per day
2023-09-04
17.0
2023-09-11
19.7
2023-09-18
21.7
2023-09-25
20.4
2023-10-02
20.6
2023-10-09
20.3
2023-10-16
19.7
2023-10-23
19.0
2023-10-30
20.0
2023-11-06
16.9
2023-11-13
21.3
2023-11-20
18.3
2023-11-27
16.1
2023-12-04
14.6
2023-12-11
14.1
2023-12-18
3.9
2023-12-25
4.1
2024-01-01
4.7
2024-01-08
4.0
2024-01-15
3.7
2024-01-22
3.0
2024-01-29
4.6
2024-02-05
4.1
2024-02-12
5.7
2024-02-19
3.9
2024-02-26
4.4
2024-03-04
5.1
2024-03-11
4.6
2024-03-18
3.4
2024-03-25
5.1
2024-04-01
5.3
2024-04-08
4.1
2024-04-15
5.3
2024-04-22
4.7
2024-04-29
5.3
2024-05-06
4.6
2024-05-13
4.9
2024-05-20
4.7
2024-05-27
5.3
2024-06-03
4.9
2024-06-10
6.7
2024-06-17
4.7
2024-06-24
5.0
2024-07-01
5.0
2024-07-08
5.4
2024-07-15
6.3
2024-07-22
4.3
2024-07-29
5.7
2024-08-05
5.1
2024-08-12
5.9
2024-08-19
6.6
2024-08-26
5.9
2024-09-02
6.1
2024-09-09
6.0
2024-09-16
6.0
2024-09-23
4.4
2024-09-30
5.4
2024-10-07
6.9
2024-10-14
6.4
2024-10-21
5.9
2024-10-28
7.0
2024-11-04
6.3
2024-11-11
6.9
2024-11-18
6.7
2024-11-25
8.0
2024-12-02
5.9
2024-12-09
7.6
2024-12-16
5.7
2024-12-23
5.9
2024-12-30
6.7
2025-01-06
6.9
2025-01-13
7.7
2025-01-20
8.0
2025-01-27
8.1
2025-02-03
6.3
2025-02-10
6.9
2025-02-17
8.4
2025-02-24
6.3
2025-03-03
7.3
2025-03-10
7.4
2025-03-17
7.1
2025-03-24
6.9
2025-03-31
7.3
2025-04-07
6.3
2025-04-14
6.9
2025-04-21
7.3
2025-04-28
6.3
2025-05-05
5.7
2025-05-12
7.6
2025-05-19
6.7
2025-05-26
6.9
2025-06-02
7.9
2025-06-09
6.6
2025-06-16
5.4
2025-06-23
6.4
2025-06-30
5.7
2025-07-07
7.7
2025-07-14
5.0
2025-07-21
7.7
2025-07-28
7.1
2025-08-04
6.3
2025-08-11
8.3
2025-08-18
6.1
2025-08-25
6.3
2025-09-01
5.7
2025-09-08
6.4
2025-09-15
7.1
2025-09-22
5.9
2025-09-29
7.6
2025-10-06
5.4
2025-10-13
6.6
2025-10-20
6.6
2025-10-27
6.7
2025-11-03
6.6
2025-11-10
6.4
2025-11-17
6.3
2025-11-24
6.1
2025-12-01
8.0
2025-12-08
3.3
2025-12-15
5.7
2025-12-22
7.0
2025-12-29
6.0
2026-01-05
5.4
2026-01-12
5.7
2026-01-19
7.0
2026-01-26
5.4
2026-02-02
6.1
2026-02-09
5.0
2026-02-16
6.6
2026-02-23
6.1
2026-03-02
5.3
2026-03-09
4.6
2026-03-16
5.4
2026-03-23
6.0
2026-03-30
4.7
2026-04-06
5.6
2026-04-13
6.0
2026-04-20
6.6
2026-04-27
6.3
2026-05-04
5.6
2026-05-11
5.4
2026-05-18
6.1
2026-05-25
6.3
2026-06-01
6.0
2026-06-08
6.1
2026-06-15
5.6
2026-06-22
4.4
2026-06-29
6.0
2026-07-06
4.9
2026-07-13
4.9
2026-07-20
5.4
2026-07-27
5.1
2026-08-03
4.0
2026-08-10
4.9
2026-08-17
5.1
2026-08-24
4.1
2026-08-31
5.0
2026-09-07
5.9
2026-09-14
5.0
2026-09-21
4.9
2026-09-28
5.3
2026-10-05
6.3
2026-10-12
4.7
2026-10-19
7.3
This is a measured change in public data during the event window, compared with a baseline before it. It shows timing, not cause. We describe an event as causing a change only when an official source says so.
Previous computations (20)
2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:8b5b75b1a504: observed 40.4 against baseline 75.7 transits per day
2026-09-19, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:ec18ef20d923: observed 39.7 against baseline 75.7 transits per day
2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:f04f7db9927d: observed 85.9 against baseline 50.9 transits per day
2026-09-19, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:967e65bd610a: observed 84.6 against baseline 50.9 transits per day
2026-09-19, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:55fb2926c713: observed 26.4 against baseline 77.6 transits per day
2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:7a5f92349a75: observed 25.8 against baseline 77.6 transits per day
2026-09-19, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:a3e85c66473f: observed 5.4 against baseline 19.6 transits per day
2026-09-22, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:dedc24ba98e8: observed 5.3 against baseline 19.6 transits per day
2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:0811384d0504: observed 43.1 against baseline 75.7 transits per day
2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:815156dea482: observed 43.0 against baseline 75.7 transits per day
2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:8ea2cdfce941: observed 42.4 against baseline 75.7 transits per day
2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:5ee68deffd99: observed 29.6 against baseline 77.6 transits per day
2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:959d44c1e5dd: observed 28.9 against baseline 77.6 transits per day
2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:9fb18a7af7a0: observed 28.1 against baseline 77.6 transits per day
2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:337ec009035a: observed 87.7 against baseline 50.9 transits per day
2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:0e0dd8a02e66: observed 85.8 against baseline 50.9 transits per day
2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:63b0f205b494: observed 85.9 against baseline 50.9 transits per day
2026-10-06, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:28805271f065: observed 5.3 against baseline 19.6 transits per day
2026-10-18, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:4be311f44ac1: observed 5.8 against baseline 19.6 transits per day
2026-10-21, wfm-effect-1.0, revision 1:d2bf55c4ad1e: observed 5.4 against baseline 19.6 transits per day